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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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