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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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