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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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