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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 March 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION REQUIRES LETTER OF CREDIT FOR EXPORT OF PRODUCTS FROM NATURAL RESOURCES
The Minister of Trade issued Ministerial Regulation No. 04/M-DAG/PER/1/2015 (“Regulation No. 4/2015”) on 5 January 2015. Regulati ...
Friday, 27 March 15
WEEKLY U.S COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.7% W-W; 7.9% Y-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS DECLINED BY 1.2 % Y-O-Y; PANAMAX AUSSIE/CHINA ROUNDS BEING FIXED IN THE $4 -5K RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates en ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZE SEGMENT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
To see green across the board is a rare occurrence in the Dry Bulk market nowadays and while the upside in which last week closed off is not of the ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
KYUSHU ELECTRIC POWER OF JAPAN HAS JOINED GLOBALCOAL ONLINE COAL TRADING PLATFORM
globalCOAL® announced today that Kyushu Electric Power, one of Japan’s largest utility companies, has joined its online coal trading plat ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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