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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
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