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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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