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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 04 April 15
BORYEONG POWER OF KOMIPO TO BUY TOTALED 695K MT OF HIGH AND LCV COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 500000 Metr ...
Friday, 03 April 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million short ...
Friday, 03 April 15
TOBA BARA'S PANDU SJAHRIR ELECTED AS NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION
COALspot.com: Pandu Sjahrir, the Vice President Director & CFO of the Jakarta-listed PT Toba Bara Sejahtra — a subsidiary of PT Toba Seja ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
GOVERNMENT MUST WORK WITH MINING, NOT AGAINST IT - PANDU SJAHRIR
The Coal Face: The coal price has hit its lowest point in recent memory
My father used to say to me that his children are his biggest inv ...
Thursday, 02 April 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERS FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS "DRY" UP
Newbuilding ordering activity remained subdued over the course of the past week, as ship owners are wary of adding further tonnage to an already pr ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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