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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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