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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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