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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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