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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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