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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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