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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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