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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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