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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
Friday, 08 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S. UP 3.2% THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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