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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 May 15
Q1' 16 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3' 15 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.05 (2.10%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.53 (1.05%) pe ...
Sunday, 17 May 15
INDONESIA - INDIA FREIGHTS RATES EXPECTED TO FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 10.45% and closed at 634 points week on week, while the Cape index saws big jump or up almost 55% for the same peri ...
Friday, 15 May 15
DRY BULK AND CONTAINER SHIPPING TO REMAIN WEAK, OUTLOOK FOR PORTS AND TANKERS POSITIVE - DREWRY MARITIME EQUITY RESEARCH
Global economy is in a gradual recovery mode, sending mixed signals to investors. Chinese economic data continues to remain weak as economy transit ...
Friday, 15 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S DOWN 1.4 MILLION TONS FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 8
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 13 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The EU governments in an effort to face their economic crisis individually are facing lack of political cohesion. This reflects back to each econom ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
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