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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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