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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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