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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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