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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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