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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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