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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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