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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
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