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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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