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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 June 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S ROSE 6.0% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.3 million short ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.31% MORE COAL IN MAY 2015 COMPARED TO APRIL 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.18 billio ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
CAPESIZE: PERIOD INTEREST REMAINED STRONG FOR A SECOND WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Following those depressive last six months, the BDI closed off on last Friday noting a substantial weekly increase, which pushed the ...
Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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