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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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