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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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