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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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