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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 12 July 15
SHIPYARD NOT LIABLE FOR ENGINE ROOM FIRE CAUSED BY OIL LEAKAGE - BIRCH WINDAHL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A Danish vessel owner requested a Danish shipyard to undertake repairs and maintenance works on its vessel. An agreement ...
Saturday, 11 July 15
MAJOR IRANIAN GAS EXPORTS WILL TAKE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS - FITCH
Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas re ...
Friday, 10 July 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS POSITIVE MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its positive momentum over the course of the past few days, thanks to Panamax gains. During yesterday’s session ...
Friday, 10 July 15
U.S PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 14.1 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short ...
Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Despite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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