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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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