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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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