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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the fallin ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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