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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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