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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
Sunday, 05 April 15
FREIGHT RATES UNDER PRESSURE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Indices fell on all segments and the market seemed to soften this week.
The BDI was almost lost 1.34% week over week and clo ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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