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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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