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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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