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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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