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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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