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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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