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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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