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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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