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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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