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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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