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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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