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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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