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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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