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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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