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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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