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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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