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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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