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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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